Deathbat's Tabletop Gaming Predictions for 2019

Ah, this is going to be a tough one because the game industry (for RPGs, at least) is fairly stable and predictable these days. But I'll give it a shot with some suggestions for what may come to be:

1. D&D will see an official sourcebook for at least two of these: Spelljammer, Dark Suns, or Eberron

It's clear that Wizards of the Coast has been setting up all three for a return at some point, the question is just: when? And will we see more Ravnica/Planewalker stuff for Magic soon?

2. Far West will not appear this year, and therefore not appear this decade

I have no bone in this failed Kickstarter that is somehow still in limbo after something like seven years. Follow Erik Tenkar for occasional "updates" on the Kickstarter, but the only certainty anymore is that clocks are right twice a day, and this Kickstarter kicked the bucket a long time ago, but the author manages to keep stringing it out to hopefully run out the statute of limitations on lawsuits, I am guessing. 

3. Modiphius will hit some sort of Criticality this year

Modiphius is a prolific publisher and distributor, and just acquired the controls to the entire World of Darkness line in the wake of some shake ups at Paradox/White Wolf over poor editorial controls. As a result Modiphius now has a ridiculous number of titles and IPs under its belt, possibly more than they can handle, although I admit I have no information on total staff size or arrangements.

In general Modiphius has been brilliant at handling high quality print and PDF distribution, Kickstarters and distribution deals. I don't know how long they can sustain, and given that they were the only retailer online I ordered from in the last two months that was not quite able to fulfill their orders within the same month that the orders were placed, I suspect that they may be a bit overwhelmed. My prediction is that this year Modiphius could do very well, but it is possible --likely, even-- that they have bitten off more than they can chew at last, and I wonder if some of their product lines are maybe not moving as fast as they should? Even Cubicle 7 seems to have streamlined their product schedule, for example.

It could be that Modiphius is effectively sliding in to a new category of publisher/distributor and maybe is closer to Fantasy Flight Games in terms of scope now than, say, Cubicle 7. But I predict either way that we'll see some sort of impact on their high volume of product output this year.

4. D&D will see more than four major releases from WotC this year

D&D seems to be doing well enough that we're seeing more product creep, which is either a good thing or not depending on who you are. I predict we will see five major releases this year instead of four like last year, with some clever tie-ins to work it all together.

5. Pathfinder 2.0 Release will please the hardcore and capture the curious but fail to expand market share

I don't think this is a brave prediction, unfotunately. I think that the open playtest led to an unfortunate feedback loop in which players turned off by the playtest simply bailed out, and the ones willing to embrace it stayed in, and as a result the playtest will be a solid refinement of what that core likes, while missing the information necessary to expand the game to include the larger overall audience. Will it be playable? Absolutely. Will it be worth playing? Only if it offers an experience that is competitive with D&D in a way that is going to capture new players. Unfortunately I think it's going in the opposite direction.

6. Palladium may go belly up

Possibly not until 2020, but I have a feeling that Palladium will hit rock bottom and finally go kaput this year. Too much negativity from burned fans over Robotech may be the cause, but it's chiefly due to the fact that while many could argue Palladium's games have been stuck in the nineties, now even their business practices are stuck in the nineties, and this along with what seem to be perpetual financial woes may be it for them. I could possibly be wrong here.....but only in that this may not happen until 2020 or maybe 2021, but since I need something contentious for my list this is a good bet.

7. The Fantasy Trip gets a serious revival

This is a no-brainer: TFT is being released, in print, by Marchish. Steve Jackson Games is providing an encouraging online storefront for new product. We'll see the release of classic TFT lead either to serious expansions or a 2nd edition announced before the end of the year.

8. BRP revised finally appears

Fingers crossed, we will see the new 32 page BRP book and maybe an updated Mythic Iceland in PDF at least before December 2019. Of course, Chaosium still needs to get print versions of the Glorantha Bestiary and GM Screen out, which I sincerely hope does happen....even if you're not a Glorantha fan, the game is amazing and deserves attention. It will MAKE you a Glorantha fan!

....okay, that's enough of that! I'll do one for Computer Gaming next.

Kickstarter Madness: Mystery at Port Greely, Quests of Doom 3 and New Big Dragon Games GM Screen

First: I've backed out of the Conan Kickstarter entirely. It sounds, to be honest, "too good to be true" at this phase and I sort of feel like it's a Kickstarter gone mad. Admittedly, Modiphius (if any!) can pull it off....but that's a lot of stuff for some way-too-cheap backer prices. I want (and expect) them to succeed because I want Conan goodness.....but the risk averse portion of my psyche got overwhelmed by what the Kickstarter is promising against the comparable cost.

New Big Dragon (Richard LeBlanc) is doing a GM Screen Kickstarter for B/X and Labyrinth Lord games. It's a nice looking screen! Check it out:



Even better, Frog God Games returns to 5th Edition with a Quests of Doom 3 tome. I'm definitely backing this one:



Finally, there's still a couple weeks on it but a new Astonishing Swordsmen & Sorcerers of Hyperborea scenario is in the works: "The Mystery at Port Greely," and the backing price is cheap ($20 for the book). Only the anachronistic names of the AS&SH modules sometimes gets to me....hardcore swords & sorcery adventures with adventures that sound like riverside vacation spots near Arkham!

2015 Gaming Year in Review Part II: Kickstarters and OGL!!!

This was the year a lot of Kickstarters came to fruition, and also the year Deluxe Tunnels & Trolls finally materialized. It was also a major year for consumers to finally wise up and start scrutinizing wayward Kickstarters, especially serial offenders like Ken Whitman (alias Ken Whitless) thanks especially to Erik Tenkar's research efforts. Some highs and lows...

HIGH: Deluxe Tunnels & Trolls arrives

It almost missed 2015, but it did finally see release, and the Deluxe T&T core rulebook was a real pleasure to read and look at, a definite labor of love for both the authors, artists and fans.

LOW: The Ken Witman debacles

Not something I wrote about, but Tenkar's Tavern did a great deal to expose this serial con artist and his rampant abuse of crowdfunding, part of a long history of swindling and chicanery, it turns out.

HIGH: D&D 5E Gets Some Kickstarters

First Frog God Games did it in late 2014, with the fruit of their efforts coming out early in the year. Later 5E Kickstarters included Primeval Thule (which should be in my hands now if the Post Office can figure out how to forward mail....Sasquatch, remember to ask backers if there's an address change before shipping!!!), Tome of Beasts from Kobold Press, and more Frog God projects that seem to be experimenting with how much 5E interest there is (hint: a lot, but you need to make the Kickstarters easier to figure out and less risky).

Unfortunately all of the 5E books mentioned so far are produced on a more conventional fair-use basis because....

LOW: Still no OGL

I thought we'd see one by now, but maybe heavily modified with a lot of legal protection in place. Instead, we have no OGL going in to 2016, no word from WotC, and some suggestions from Kobold Press that maybe WotC is happy people are publishing without it, taking a bit of pressure off of the company to figure out how to support the game.

It's not bad in some ways; most 3PP have figured out now that you can produce your own content and publish it anyway, or are using the original OGL and just being careful.

LOW: Call of Cthulhu 7th

Call of Cthulhu 7th is not here. Backers might see it soon, in early 2016, but only because Chaosium is back on life support and breathing steadily, it seems. Will this Kickstarter come to pass? Was the Runequest 2 reprint another way to rob Peter to pay Paul (or whatever that expression is)?

LOWEST: Goblinworks Almost Goes Belly Up

Yeah I beat this dead horse last post, but it's worth mentioning because no one seems to be overly worked up about the fact that the Pathfinder Online game had two big, costly Kickstarters and ultimately ended up crashing Hindenberg style when Goblinworks admitted it missed its funding goal for completion by 75% and laid everyone off.....did Kickstarter backers ever actually get fulfillment on what they paid for? It seems to me this was not happening, not even close. For many (like myself) this was not a surprise....anyone who follows video game development could tell Goblinworks was designed to fail in their expectations and promises, but both Kickstarters had promised lofty goals, and I suppose did so cleverly....with one promising to fund a demo, essentially, and not the actual game. The other one fulfilled lots of print book promises, which apparently was what the backers really wanted. The Kickstarters ultimately felt very shady, in a "we met our obligations --technically--" sort of way....but if Goblinworks had been, say, Paradox Interactive or CDProject Red I think they would have been slammed, badly, for how they handled all of this. (Of course neither of those publishers would have done such a stunt in the first place).

PREDICTIONS: well, more Kickstarters loom (duh), as despite the bad ones there are many more success stories....and Kickstarters now are doing a better job of qualifying themselves by demonstrating prior successes. We will probably see CoC 7th in print but if there's still not CoC7 by the end of 2016 then I'll suggest it might be because Chaosium folded.....but the success of the RQ2 reprint Kickstarter suggests that shouldn't happen if they are careful. Meanwhile I predict that it will be shocking if Pathfinder Online is still, well, Online by this time next year.

Next: the more things change...